Author Topic: First snowfall of the season here.  (Read 20366 times)

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Offline Moe M.

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First snowfall of the season here.
« on: November 12, 2013, 09:26:01 AM »

  Well what I've been dreading came to pass this morning,  I got up, looked out the window and was greeted to a grey day made worse by a mix of rain and snow,  not heavy enough to accumulate,  but a sign of the passing of another fall and the start of the next five months of cold and wet,  BURR.    :pissed:

  On the other hand it also heralds the coming family holidays, the most holy of seasons,  and festive music,  also a good blizzard is a fine excuse to bury yourself in your workshop and make new gear.
                                                                                                                                                 :thumbsup:
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Offline OutdoorEnvy

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2013, 09:29:00 AM »

  On the other hand it also heralds the coming family holidays, the most holy of seasons,  and festive music,  also a good blizzard is a fine excuse to bury yourself in your workshop and make new gear.
                                                                                                                                                 :thumbsup:

Heck yes it is   O:-)

I like the cold and snow.  Wish I got more of it where I live   :(
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Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2013, 09:32:42 AM »
I'm in a protected valley, and so far we've only seen 1" of snow on two occasions. The mountains 8 miles east of us, and 3,500 feet higher have 3 feet of snow right now. It's been strange, because we haven't even dipped blow freezing for the past 3 nights. But next week is supposed to be in the teens.
Don't bother walking a mile in my shoes. That would be boring. Try spending 30 seconds in my head. That will freak you right out!!

Offline werewolf won

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2013, 09:42:10 AM »
Same here, to wet to stick.  18 degrees tomorrow too.  Get ready here it comes.
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Offline zammer

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2013, 10:09:36 AM »
Its always a coin toss living this close to the great lakes, they can either help to keep things a little warmer by blocking some of the colder temps ( in late fall early winter ) or the frigid arctic winds can come screaming over them dropping rediculous amounts of lake effect snow....we shall see, so far the coldest its gotten is around 32F last night and no snow so far.

Edit:   Here is our prediction models for Canada, first is the temp's



Now the snowfall
[/URL]

I'm in that little area slightly southwest of Toronto, Ont..........accord ing to these two prediction maps I am looking at slightly above temps and near normal snowfall........... lol...whatever that means.

I think ( for a mini winter project ) I'll start tracking how well these predictions come true, although winter ( for us in the northern hemisphere ) is from Sat Dec 21-2013 till Wed Mar 19-2014  I'm going to run my project from Nov 15th-2013 till the end of Mar-2014 cause those are the months that feel like winter  8)
« Last Edit: November 12, 2013, 10:53:44 AM by zammer »
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Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2013, 10:21:11 AM »
I'm hoping the NOAA Climate Prediction Center is right this time. They actually have a pretty good track record, having forecasted correctly our last two cold Springs almost 12 months in advance. The numbers on the contour lines indicate the percentage probability of deviating from seasonal "normals".

Anyway, here's what they have right now for Nov-Dec-Jan this winter.

Temperatures:



Precipitation:


Don't bother walking a mile in my shoes. That would be boring. Try spending 30 seconds in my head. That will freak you right out!!

Offline kanukkarhu

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2013, 10:44:37 AM »
This thread needs a pic of the first snowfall:
This was from another thread. It's our first snowfall that didn't melt away immediately.


I like what Moe said, tho... Snow to me means writer and Christmas and family times inside playing games and drinking hot drinks... And snowshoeing!!! :)
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2013, 11:23:00 AM »
Had my first snow fall two weeks ago, then it warmed up and it is all gone, a balmy 50 here right now...   I have been monitoring solar activity, the solar observatory folks thought that solar max had all ready occurred. That is not the case, there have been some very energetic sun spots with quite a few flares, my guess is for a warmer winter this year. 

Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2013, 11:33:46 AM »
Had my first snow fall two weeks ago, then it warmed up and it is all gone, a balmy 50 here right now...   I have been monitoring solar activity, the solar observatory folks thought that solar max had all ready occurred. That is not the case, there have been some very energetic sun spots with quite a few flares, my guess is for a warmer winter this year.
This is a handy site if you don't already have it. Especially for those along the northern tier who might want to check their chances for seeing the Aurora on a clear night, or figure out why their cell phones are acting up.  :P

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2013, 11:43:59 AM »
And this one:  http://spaceweather.com/

Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2013, 11:57:25 AM »
And this one:  http://spaceweather.com/
Thanks! I was only aware of ISON. Now I just need a clear night!!!
Don't bother walking a mile in my shoes. That would be boring. Try spending 30 seconds in my head. That will freak you right out!!

Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2013, 02:10:40 PM »
OP

Seems like clear nights have been in short supply recently.

Offline Mannlicher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2013, 02:37:49 PM »
Nary a flake here, which is as it should be, and how I like it.   8)

Offline wolfy

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2013, 04:24:36 PM »
We've had two snow events here that looked about like Kanukkarhu's picture above.  Both have melted, but it has been getting cold here between warmups, too. I had to break down and put my old Witney 4 point on the bed last night.  It was a balmy 4* F. here this morning and clear.  We were working on a grain bin and we about froze our buns off, but we're looking for a warmup in the next few days.   Hope so.....still have over half the corn to harvest.  I didn't buy a deer permit & don't know that I will.....it starts this Saturday, but we will be harvesting, I HOPE! ???
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Offline Yellowyak

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2013, 05:06:32 PM »
We've had two snow events here that looked about like Kanukkarhu's picture above.  Both have melted, but it has been getting cold here between warmups, too. I had to break down and put my old Witney 4 point on the bed last night.  It was a balmy 4* F. here this morning and clear.  We were working on a grain bin and we about froze our buns off, but we're looking for a warmup in the next few days.   Hope so.....still have over half the corn to harvest.  I didn't buy a deer permit & don't know that I will.....it starts this Saturday, but we will be harvesting, I HOPE! ???

Wolfy, I don't want to derail the thread too much, and excuse me if this is a silly question, but if you had below freezing temperature last night, what does that do to the corn? It had to of froze, what effect does that have on the harvest?

Offline wolfy

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2013, 05:34:59 PM »
We've had two snow events here that looked about like Kanukkarhu's picture above.  Both have melted, but it has been getting cold here between warmups, too. I had to break down and put my old Witney 4 point on the bed last night.  It was a balmy 4* F. here this morning and clear.  We were working on a grain bin and we about froze our buns off, but we're looking for a warmup in the next few days.   Hope so.....still have over half the corn to harvest.  I didn't buy a deer permit & don't know that I will.....it starts this Saturday, but we will be harvesting, I HOPE! ???

Wolfy, I don't want to derail the thread too much, and excuse me if this is a silly question, but if you had below freezing temperature last night, what does that do to the corn? It had to of froze, what effect does that have on the harvest?
Not silly at all.....and nobody enjoys a good derail like I do! :rofl:

The corn needs to be at 15% moisture content or lower to avoid spoilage in the bin.  It is in the neighborhood of 16-18% right now.  We can dry it in the bin by blowing natural air up through a plenum under a perforated floor if the weather holds, but if it gets colder and it snows and rains a lot, we have to heat the air with a 10hp electric fan blowing past a large gas burner jet & flame spreader.  This thing takes a lot of electricity & propane to run.......DAGNABIT >:(.   

Hard freezing, sunshine and moderate wind is beneficial to us at this point because it helps to dry the moisture from the ear as it hangs on the stalk in the field.  We could lose a percentage point of moisture in a day's time under optimum conditions. :).  That saves us a lot of expense & makes possible the purchase of the new CZ 455 American .22 Sporter I've had my eye on! 8)
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Offline hunter63

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2013, 05:55:52 PM »
Its always a coin toss living this close to the great lakes, they can either help to keep things a little warmer by blocking some of the colder temps ( in late fall early winter ) or the frigid arctic winds can come screaming over them dropping rediculous amounts of lake effect snow....we shall see, so far the coldest its gotten is around 32F last night and no snow so far.

Edit:   Here is our prediction models for Canada, first is the temp's


Now the snowfall
[/URL]

I'm in that little area slightly southwest of Toronto, Ont..........accord ing to these two prediction maps I am looking at slightly above temps and near normal snowfall........... lol...whatever that means.

I think ( for a mini winter project ) I'll start tracking how well these predictions come true, although winter ( for us in the northern hemisphere ) is from Sat Dec 21-2013 till Wed Mar 19-2014  I'm going to run my project from Nov 15th-2013 till the end of Mar-2014 cause those are the months that feel like winter  8)

Wow Lookie there....all that weather ends at the border....LOL
SW Wisconsin.
Had the first snow yesterday in the morning....temp dropped and was still there today till the sun came out and melted off the sunlit fields.

Last night was down to 13 degrees with about the same projected for tonight....but back to 50 this week end.

Neighbor grow corn in my lower fields....was picking and chopping and blowing right into a portable feeder...then haul home ...about a mile.

Finished the last of it today....
Bottom field got flooded and destroyed this year.
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Offline Yellowyak

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2013, 06:18:26 PM »
We've had two snow events here that looked about like Kanukkarhu's picture above.  Both have melted, but it has been getting cold here between warmups, too. I had to break down and put my old Witney 4 point on the bed last night.  It was a balmy 4* F. here this morning and clear.  We were working on a grain bin and we about froze our buns off, but we're looking for a warmup in the next few days.   Hope so.....still have over half the corn to harvest.  I didn't buy a deer permit & don't know that I will.....it starts this Saturday, but we will be harvesting, I HOPE! ???

Wolfy, I don't want to derail the thread too much, and excuse me if this is a silly question, but if you had below freezing temperature last night, what does that do to the corn? It had to of froze, what effect does that have on the harvest?
Not silly at all.....and nobody enjoys a good derail like I do! :rofl:

The corn needs to be at 15% moisture content or lower to avoid spoilage in the bin.  It is in the neighborhood of 16-18% right now.  We can dry it in the bin by blowing natural air up through a plenum under a perforated floor if the weather holds, but if it gets colder and it snows and rains a lot, we have to heat the air with a 10hp electric fan blowing past a large gas burner jet & flame spreader.  This thing takes a lot of electricity & propane to run.......DAGNABIT >:(.   

Hard freezing, sunshine and moderate wind is beneficial to us at this point because it helps to dry the moisture from the ear as it hangs on the stalk in the field.  We could lose a percentage point of moisture in a day's time under optimum conditions. :).  That saves us a lot of expense & makes possible the purchase of the new CZ 455 American .22 Sporter I've had my eye on! 8)

Thanks for the education. I had no idea how much effort was involved. Thanks for taking the time to explain the process. And good luck on the harvest and the CZ.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2013, 07:12:59 PM »
Yeah...I notice from those Canadian maps that all the below normal cold, and above normal precip is parked right on the Montana border, like an invading army!!!
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Offline diogenes

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2013, 08:27:54 PM »
We had a little snow last night but none of it stuck. The only thing that stayed is the cold. :-\
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Offline Bearhunter

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2013, 08:44:30 PM »
it's snowed a few times outside of missoula where i'm staying. we had 3 in. the other night, but it's all melted now.
i just wonder how much is up at the cabin. i bet we have quite a bit. i'm going to try and drive up that way sometime soon and check it out.
i've got two snowmobiles that i need to get out of there and sell, but i need enough snow first!
i may just leave them and hope for the best :shrug:  :(
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Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2013, 08:59:38 PM »
...
i've got two snowmobiles that i need to get out of there and sell, but i need enough snow first!
i may just leave them and hope for the best :shrug: :(
That's what they make trailers for. Maybe you should get them before you have to dig 'em out of a snowbank. But I hear what you're sayin'....
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2013, 09:19:40 AM »
The long term weather forecasts are a bit like the predictions produced by the Oracle of Delphi, sufficiently vague, as to leave room for interpretation. 

The Oracle sat in proximity of a geothermal vent and received inspiration, by way of breathing noxious vapors.   Something I am sure, almost anyone can do from the comfort of their own bathroom.   

Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2013, 09:45:24 AM »
The National Weather Service's crystal ball must be getting foggy.
Last night it was forecast that we'd be around 32 degrees. Our low was 46. Our high today is supposed to be 44. We already exceeded that at 9 am.
Three days from now, they say we'll get down to 11 deg. I'm hoping they are still smoking whatever it is they've been on all Fall, and are 10 degrees off once again.  :P
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Offline zammer

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2013, 09:59:40 AM »
Wow Lookie there....all that weather ends at the border....LOL

LOL... So don't forget, if ya'll don't behave Stateside I unleash the mighty fury of all that above and below and near normal stuff upon your souls... >:D
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #25 on: November 13, 2013, 10:24:20 AM »
zammer

Oh no, not the much dreaded "near normal" .....   

Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #26 on: November 13, 2013, 10:25:50 AM »
OP

As I stated, could not have produced as accurate a prediction while reading the morning paper in the "reading room"...?

Offline zammer

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2013, 10:41:34 AM »
zammer

Oh no, not the much dreaded "near normal" .....   

Yes, I'm afraid so....it's all poised to strike
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #28 on: November 13, 2013, 10:52:26 AM »
zammer

Will there be the need for moon light rituals and burnt offerings to forestall this impending doom...?
« Last Edit: November 13, 2013, 11:07:41 AM by John Van Gelder »

Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #29 on: November 13, 2013, 10:58:07 AM »
zammer

Will there be the need for moon light rituals and burnt offerings and forestall this impending doom...?
Craft an effigy of a snowman, wrap it in a warm flannel cloth, and bury it under your back steps during the dark of the moon.
Don't bother walking a mile in my shoes. That would be boring. Try spending 30 seconds in my head. That will freak you right out!!

Offline imnukensc

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #30 on: November 13, 2013, 11:03:18 AM »
We actually had measurable snowfall here last night.  Only the third time in November in 124 years of record keeping.
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #31 on: November 13, 2013, 11:12:14 AM »
 imnukensc

I am no "weather wizard", but based on my observations of sun spot activity, my best bet is a lot of up and downs this winter.  Cold wet/snowy conditions followed by unseasonable warm periods.

I think the average will be a bit milder in most places.

Just my guess, based on inhaling noxious fumes.. :)  . .. J

Offline imnukensc

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2013, 04:44:30 PM »
Just my guess, based on inhaling noxious fumes.. :)  . .. J

John, Yer spending too much time at the wrong end of the horses.   :P
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #33 on: November 13, 2013, 05:30:49 PM »
imnukensc

So that's it.. I will try to stay up wind...

Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #34 on: November 13, 2013, 06:05:45 PM »
Just my guess, based on inhaling noxious fumes.. :)  . .. J

John, Yer spending too much time at the wrong end of the horses.   :P
imnukensc

So that's it.. I will try to stay up wind...

I have it on good authority that methane is a poor substitute for nitrous oxide.
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #35 on: November 13, 2013, 06:19:06 PM »
OP

Oh don't make me laugh... :)

Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #36 on: November 15, 2013, 09:44:14 AM »
Got to love that National Weather Service.  I checked my forecast first thing this morning, and had a possibility of snow for this afternoon and evening, with accumulations of less than and inch.  I just checked again and now there is a severe storm warning in effect with the possibility of 18-24", I guess if I had a vote in this I would rather have the 1"...

If your are East of Oregon, it might be a good idea to check your forecast.   

Offline zammer

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #37 on: November 15, 2013, 09:56:17 AM »
  I just checked again and now there is a severe storm warning in effect with the possibility of 18-24", I guess if I had a vote in this I would rather have the 1"...

 8)
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Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #38 on: November 15, 2013, 09:58:08 AM »
Our updated forecast for my area says 5"-11". My Spot Forecast Hourly Graph says 6" between now and Sunday morning, total. The Future Radar says we are going to have snow all around us, but very little in our valley.  It's a crap shoot.....
Don't bother walking a mile in my shoes. That would be boring. Try spending 30 seconds in my head. That will freak you right out!!

Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #39 on: November 15, 2013, 09:59:47 AM »
zammer

The dreaded "near normal" is looking better to me...

Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #40 on: November 15, 2013, 10:06:08 AM »
OP

I live right at the boundary of two different weather patterns, if I go just two miles East or West there is a significant change in precipitation. 

Crap shoot..?  You bet..!  With that in mind, I have my new blade on the tractor, fuel in the tank and will move my snow blower into the ready position in my garage, and put the motorcycle in the back...


Offline WoodsWoman

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #41 on: November 15, 2013, 11:11:25 AM »
OP.. that's good to get some of that snow isn't it?  For deer hunting? Easier tracking and making big bucks more visible?     How's the hunt going over there anyway?

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Offline madmax

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #42 on: November 15, 2013, 11:18:13 AM »
I still hold romantic thoughts of the first snowfall in the winter in IL.  Magical.  In MN it would sometimes require breaking out the snowmobiles.  A bit different.  I go north for a hit of frozen fun at least once a year.  Then drive home in flip flops and shorts. 
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Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #43 on: November 15, 2013, 11:44:41 AM »
OP.. that's good to get some of that snow isn't it?  For deer hunting? Easier tracking and making big bucks more visible?     How's the hunt going over there anyway?

WW.
On hold for another week. Thanksgiving week will be the push, if there is one. The rut has already started here.
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Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #44 on: November 15, 2013, 12:23:50 PM »
I will have to admit that I like a little snow, it it great fun to go out and hike the mountains and look for interesting tracks.  I did that at the first significant snowfall last year, took my day pack and some rations, went down into the bottom of one of the canyons, during the height of the storm, found a good spot under a fir tree, built a fire and had hot tea and noodles.  I hiked back up out of the canyon, and ran into a swath across the new show where an elk herd had been through, they had been through by way of my horse pasture, and the fence was down in a number of places. 

I was met by my horses, and they all ran up to me, and I could imagine them saying "hey guess what!"....   

Would not trade that for warm spot down on the flat.... J

Offline Moe M.

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #45 on: November 15, 2013, 05:31:00 PM »
I will have to admit that I like a little snow, it it great fun to go out and hike the mountains and look for interesting tracks.  I did that at the first significant snowfall last year, took my day pack and some rations, went down into the bottom of one of the canyons, during the height of the storm, found a good spot under a fir tree, built a fire and had hot tea and noodles.  I hiked back up out of the canyon, and ran into a swath across the new show where an elk herd had been through, they had been through by way of my horse pasture, and the fence was down in a number of places. 

I was met by my horses, and they all ran up to me, and I could imagine them saying "hey guess what!"....   

Would not trade that for warm spot down on the flat.... J

   Sounds like a great day John,  it's times like that when a man can feel rich beyond any amount of dollars.
In youth we learn,   with age we understand.

Offline imnukensc

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #46 on: November 15, 2013, 07:13:48 PM »
I wish I could stand the cold :(
The universe is made up of protons, neutrons, electrons, and morons.

Offline John Van Gelder

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #47 on: November 16, 2013, 07:10:03 AM »
Moe

  " Sounds like a great day John,  it's times like that when a man can feel rich beyond any amount of dollars."

You are so right... I have a lot of days like that up here.   I was out looking for tracks in the snow one morning, had not seen any, then spotted a white tail buck back in the brush, was chatting with him and not paying attention to where I was walking, I looked down and was standing in a very large set of bear tracks that had been made since it quit snowing, just a couple of hours before.   

Then there were the very large tracks in the snow that I felt could only have been made by someones range stock that been missed during the fall roundup, I followed those tracks for about 1/2 mile, then the "maker" of the tracks jumped completely over a blow down that was about 4-5' high, probably not somebody's old cow!

I got about 4" of snow last night and as soon as it get to be light, I will have to see what has been through...J

imnukensc

After 22 years in Alaska, winters are pretty mild by comparison here.


Offline Old Philosopher

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #48 on: November 16, 2013, 09:25:45 AM »
...
After 22 years in Alaska, winters are pretty mild by comparison here.
I went through the Blizzard of '68 in New Hampshire, spent 4 years in Nebraska, and 4 in Alaska. NW Montana is a piece o' cake!

No snow here yet. The forecast went from 5-11 inches down to 2-5 inches. Still under a traveler's warning, but I have no place I need to go. I found out 2 years ago how to keep the snow away: buy a snow blower.  :P
Don't bother walking a mile in my shoes. That would be boring. Try spending 30 seconds in my head. That will freak you right out!!

Offline WoodsWoman

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Re: First snowfall of the season here.
« Reply #49 on: November 16, 2013, 12:27:46 PM »
Wow OP.. I had the Weather channel on and figured you were getting dumped on up there.   

Yes..buy a snowblower and it wont snow. Been there.  Want it to rain? Set up a tent... Want dry weather? Plant a big garden...  Want wind?  Start charcoal for a grill....

Haven't figured out if I want snow bad enough to DO something to MAKE it happen.. :)

WW.
On particularly rough days when I'm sure I can't possibly endure, I like to remind myself that my track record for getting through bad days so far is 100% and that's pretty good.